How long before $1 million condos are the norm?

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It seems $1-million condos might not be all that far away in some places, given that prices are on the rise in much of the country.

Indeed, the average condo price in Vancouver could reach $1 million in six years, followed by Toronto and Halifax in seven years, according to real estate company Zoocasa Inc., which used data from the Canadian Real Estate Association to look at year-over-year growth prices over the past five years and project the average growth into the future.

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“What’s particularly noteworthy is the inclusion of Halifax from the Atlantic region, a city that has been gaining momentum in recent years,” the report said. “While traditionally more affordable than its counterparts in Ontario or British Columbia, Halifax has seen significant price increases due to heightened demand, limited inventory and growing migration.”

Halifax’s condo market had explosive growth between 2020 and 2022 as low interest rates brought more people into the market. Prices have since stabilized, but they remain elevated.

In the past five years, condo prices in the city have climbed an average of 13.68 per cent annually, so they would top $1.1 million in seven years if that pace continues.

Credit: Zoocasa

As for the Greater Toronto Area, matching the previous five-year trajectory may be difficult since condo prices there fell 3.3 per cent year over year in the third quarter to an average of $692,672, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.

Some experts are predicting further softness to come.

An October report by Re/Max Canada projected a one per cent decline in prices in 2025 as a glut of inventory bites into prices.

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“Toronto’s condo market is the softest it’s been in recent history, specifically in the downtown core,” Shawn Zigelstein, a Royal LePage broker, said in a news release. “With interest rates expected to ease further, thousands of new units slated for completion next year and new lending policies that will ease the burden of monthly carrying costs, this is a rare window of opportunity for first-time buyers.”

A few southern Ontario cities — London, Hamilton and Kitchener-Waterloo — are also expected to reach the $1-million milestone within the next decade.

At the opposite end, Zoocasa’s report said it could take 61 years for condo prices to reach $1 million in Regina, 57 years in Winnipeg and 30 years in St. John’s, N.L.

“Understanding these trends provides critical insights into market potential and long-term opportunities for investors and homebuyers alike,” the report said. “Although no prediction is certain, analyzing past performance alongside future projections can help inform decisions about property investing.”

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The price of chocolate could be on the way up just in time for the holiday season.

On Monday cocoa futures hit their highest level in seven months as production out of West Africa appears dim.

“The outlook for the mid-crops have deteriorated in the past weeks,” Steve Wateridge, head of research at TRS by Expana, told Bloomberg. “The weather conditions in next three months will determine whether we see further deterioration.”

Cocoa arrivals had been ahead of last year’s pace, but new data suggests the crop has now fallen behind the five-year average.

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Ben Cousins, with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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