Weak retail demand could mean less seasonal hiring in 2024

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Interest in seasonal work has risen among Canadian job seekers this year but there may not be as many jobs available to them as in the past.

As of Nov. 1, which is usually near peak-time for holiday job boards, the number of seasonal postings on Indeed was down 15 per cent compared to a year earlier — and substantially lower than at their height in 2022, according to data released by the job site. This year’s tally also amounts to 16 per cent fewer job posts than there were at the same point in 2019.

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“Soft employer demand for holiday workers, coupled with strong search interest, highlights the ongoing challenging environment facing Canadian job seekers, similar to trends during the recent summer job market,” said Indeed economist Brendon Bernard.

Every September, the number of job postings with seasonal or holiday-related terms in their titles starts rising, but this year’s ramp-up was relatively subdued, he said.

Indeed’s report said holiday job postings closely tracked broader recruitment trends, with seasonal declining to a similar degree as economy-wide postings over the past two years. The weaker seasonal demand reflects the sluggish demand for workers in the retail sector more broadly, wrote Bernard.

The report said more than three-quarters of Canadian holiday postings in October were for positions in retail, sales or customer service. Flat retail sales could mean lagging demand for workers in customer-facing sectors. Postings in these occupations were generally further below their pre-pandemic levels than the economy-wide average, Indeed said.

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Another factor that has likely contributed to this weakness is the growth of e-commerce.

The report said that, to date, about six per cent of Canadian retail sales in 2024 have been through online platforms, which is still well above the four per cent share reached before sales spiked during the pandemic.

With more people moving to online holiday shopping there is less appetite for seasonal hiring.

Still, despite the reduced supply of holiday jobs, more Canadians are searching for them. With the overall slowdown in hiring, job seekers are increasingly looking for seasonal roles in the interim.

This suggests employers still in the market for holiday workers will have an easier time filling short-term positions to end the year.

The share of searches containing seasonal or holiday-related terms, such ‘Christmas,’ ‘xmas,’ ‘santa,’ ‘holiday,’ ‘seasonal,’ ‘advent,’ as well as their French equivalents, rose for a second straight year to 0.27 per cent in early November, up from 0.20 per cent in 2022.

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Bernard said it appears the difficult conditions for Canadian job seekers will continue. He added that November and December may offer a repeat of the tough summer job market, in which the unemployment rate among students planning to return to school in the fall was the highest since 2012 (apart from 2020).

“The outlook remains challenging for those looking for seasonal work,” Bernard said. “These dynamics have generally been defining features of the Canadian labour market throughout 2024.”

• Email: dpaglinawan@postmedia.com

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