Softer PCE Data Dims Dollar’s Dazzle

The U.S. dollar slumped against major currencies during the week ended September 27 amidst further indications of a softening in inflation in the U.S. that boosted rate cut expectations. The year-on-year PCE price index eased more than expected while its core component edged up on expected lines.

The month-on-month PCE price index eased on expected lines whereas its core component unexpectedly declined. With no negative surprises in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the greenback declined against the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona as well as the Swiss franc.

The Dollar Index, a measure of the Dollar’s strength against a basket of 6 currencies slipped 0.30 percent during the week ended September 27. The index closed at 100.42, versus 100.72 a week earlier. Though the Index had touched a high of 101.23 on Monday, it plunged all the way to 100.16 on Friday in the aftermath of the release of the PCE data.

Data released on Thursday showed durable goods orders unchanged in August versus market expectation of a 2.6-percent decline. The final reading of the second quarter GDP was also unrevised at 3 percent. Also, weekly data showed an unexpected decline in the initial jobless claims.

Data released on Friday showed the year-on-year PCE price index at 2.2 percent whereas markets had expected it to decline to 2.3 percent from 2.5 percent in the previous month. Its core component edged up to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent as expected. The month-on-month PCE price index eased from 0.2 percent to 0.1 percent as expected. Its core component which was seen steady at 0.2 percent unexpectedly declined to 0.1 percent.

Despite the dollar’s weakness, the EUR/USD pair ended the week on a flat note, closing at 1.1163 versus 1.1162 a week earlier, amidst expectations of another rate cut by the European Central Bank in October. During the week, the pair ranged between the low of 1.1083 recorded on Monday and the high of 1.1214 touched on Wednesday.

Amidst a broad-based weakness in the dollar, the GBP/USD pair climbed 0.39 percent during the week ended September 27, lifting the sterling to $1.3373, from $1.3321 a week earlier. The pair climbed from the low of 1.3247 touched on Monday to the 31-month high of 1.3436 recorded on Thursday in the backdrop of jumbo rate cut by the Federal Reserve that contrasted with Bank of England’s apparently gradual approach to further monetary easing.

The Australian Dollar jumped 1.41 percent against the U.S. Dollar during the week ended September 27. The pair jumped from the low of 0.6791 recorded on Monday to 0.6938 on Friday, but eventually closed at 0.6902. The pair was at 0.6806 a week earlier. The Aussie’s moves came amidst China’s massive stimulus measures to restore its economy.

The USD/JPY pair slipped 1.2 percent during the past week amidst the growing monetary policy divergence between the Fed that has hinted at further easing and Bank of Japan that has warned of further hikes. The pair dropped to 142.19, from 143.91 a week earlier. The week’s high of 146.50 as well as the week’s low of 142.07 were both recorded on Friday. The yen surged in the past week in reaction to Shigeru Ishiba’s election as the head of Japan’s ruling party, which has reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan would continue hiking interest rates.

At the onset of the current week, markets are keenly awaiting a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell for further cues on the Fed’s monetary easing. Key economic data from the U.S. including PMI data, JOLTs job openings data as well as the monthly non-farm payrolls report are scheduled for release during the week. Ahead of the key events, the Dollar Index has firmed up to 100.50.

The EUR/USD pair decreased to 1.1148 whereas the GBP/USD pair is trading flat at 1.3373. The AUD/USD pair has also rallied to 0.6925. The USD/JPY pair climbed to 142.97 amidst a plunge in the Nikkei.

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