U.S. Stocks Rally As Inflation Data Adds To Interest Rate Optimism

Following the mixed performance seen in the previous session, stocks moved sharply higher during trading on Friday. The major averages all showed strong moves to the upside, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 bouncing off their lowest closing levels in over a month.

The major averages ended the day off their best levels of the session but still firmly in positive territory. The Dow surged 654.27 points or 1.6 percent to 40,589.34, the Nasdaq shot up 176.16 points or 1.0 percent to 17,357.88 and the S&P 500 jumped 59.88 points or 1.1 percent to 5,459.10.

For the week, the Dow advanced by 0.8 percent, but the S&P 500 slid by 0.8 percent and the Nasdaq slumped by 2.1 percent.

The strength on Wall Street came as the release of closely watched inflation data by the Commerce Department added to confidence about an interest rate by the Federal Reserve in September.

The Commerce Department said its personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inched up by 0.1 percent in June after coming in unchanged in May. The uptick by the index matched expectations.

The report also said the annual rate of growth by the PCE price index slowed to 2.5 percent in June from 2.6 percent in May. The slowdown in year-over-year growth also met estimates.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said the core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2 percent in June after inching up by 0.1 percent in May. Economists had expected another 0.1 percent uptick.

The annual rate of growth by the core PCE price index was unchanged from the previous month at 2.6 percent in June, while economists had expected the pace of growth to slow to 2.5 percent.

“The subdued rise in prices will give the Federal Reserve greater confidence that inflation is on track to moderate toward its 2% target,” said Michael Pearce, Deputy Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics.

He added, “While we are not expecting the news to be quite as good in coming months, we think it would take a nasty upward surprise to inflation between now and September to derail the Fed from cutting rates at that meeting.”

The readings on inflation, which are said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve, were included in the Commerce Department’s report on personal income and spending.

The report showed personal income rose by less than expected, while personal spending increased in line with economist estimates.

The University of Michigan also released revised data showing consumer sentiment in the U.S. deteriorated by slightly less than previously estimated in the month of July.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for July was upwardly revised to 66.4 from the preliminary reading of 66.0. Economists had expected the reading to be unrevised.

Despite the upward revision, the consumer sentiment index for July is still down from 68.2 in June and marks the lowest reading since November 2023.

Sector News

Housing stocks turned turn in some of the market’s best performances on the day, with the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index soaring by 3.2 percent to a record closing high.

Substantial strength also emerged among telecom stocks, as reflected by the 2.6 percent surge by the NYSE Arca North American Telecom Index.

Semiconductor and networking stocks also saw considerable strength, contributing to the jump by the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Commercial real estate, transportation and steel stocks also showed notable moves to the upside amid broad based strength on Wall Street.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region turned in a mixed performance during trading on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell by 0.5 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index inched up by 0.1 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets all moved to the upside on the day. While the German DAX Index climbed by 0.7 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index and the French CAC 40 Index both jumped by 1.2 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries moved higher amid a positive reaction to the inflation data. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 5.6 basis points to 4.200 percent.

Looking Ahead

Next week’s trading is likely to be driven by reaction to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement. While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, the accompanying statement could impact the outlook for rates.

Earnings news is also likely to attract attention, with a slew of big-name companies scheduled to report their quarterly results next week.