Dollar Rises As Fed Perceived More Hawkish Than Peers

The Dollar gained during the week ended June 21 amidst rising perception that the Fed was more hawkish than other major central banks. The U.S. dollar gained against the euro, the British pound, the Japanese yen, the Swedish krona as well as the Swiss franc. Despite a surge in the Dollar Index, the greenback declined against the Australian dollar as well as the Canadian dollar.

The Dollar Index or DXY added 0.24 percent during the week ended June 21, boosted by stronger-than-expected PMI readings. The Index which was at 105.55 on June 14 rallied to close at 105.80. The week’s trading range was slightly wider, with a low of 105.13 recorded on Tuesday and a high of 105.92 on Friday.

Data from U.S. released on Friday by S&P Global showed Manufacturing PMI in June unexpectedly edging up to 51.7 from 51.3 in May versus market expectations of 51. The Services PMI which was seen declining to 53.7 from 54.8 in the previous month unexpectedly jumped to 55.1. The readings reinforced the view that the Fed indeed had sufficient room to keep interest rates at the current high level for a longer period than expected.

The strong PMI update dampened the rate cut expectations triggered by the less-than-expected rebound in the Retail Sales data released on Tuesday as well as the unexpected decline in the Building Permits data released on Thursday.

The EUR/USD pair edged down 0.08 percent during the week ended June 21 amidst the political uncertainty in the region that triggered fears of a potential weakening in fiscal discipline. The less-than-expected PMI readings from the region also weighed on the sentiment. The pair slipped to 1.0691 from 1.0700 a week earlier. The weekly trading ranged between 1.0762 and 1.0671.

The sterling plunged 0.30 percent during the past week amidst a growing monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. As widely expected, the Bank of England had in its monetary policy review on Thursday maintained rates at 5.25 percent but hinted at a growing readiness for a rate cut. Data released on Wednesday had shown annual inflation rate in the U.K. cooling to the Bank of England’s 2 percent target in May. The lowest reading since July 2021 compared with 2.3 percent in the previous month and was in line with forecasts. The GBP/USD pair declined to 1.2644 on June 21 from 1.2682 a week earlier. The sterling’s weekly trading range was between $1.2741 and $1.2622.

The hawkish pause by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday helped the Aussie record weekly gains of more than 0.40 percent against the U.S. Dollar during the week ended June 21. The RBA maintained rates steady but cautioned again that inflation was still above the midpoint of the 2-3 percent target range. From the level of 0.6614 recorded on June 14, the AUD/USD pair rose to 0.6641. The pair touched a high of 0.6680 on Thursday and a low of 0.6585 on Monday.

The USD/JPY pair almost touched the psychological level of 160 during the week ended June 21 as it closed at 159.82 on Friday versus 157.37 on June 14. The pair climbed from a low of 157.15 on Monday to a high of 159.85 on Friday triggering widespread speculation about a regulatory intervention in the currency markets. Data released on Thursday had shown an acceleration in the annual inflation rate to 2.8 percent in May, from 2.5 percent in April.

At the onset of the new week, the 6-currency DXY has slipped to 105.56. The Fed’s preferred PCE-based inflation readings are due on Friday. The EUR/USD pair jumped to 1.0739 whereas the GBP/USD pair increased to 1.2670. The AUD/USD pair has edged up to 0.6645. Amidst the yen’s strength, the USD/JPY pair has dropped to 159.44.

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