The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing to a roughly flat open on Tuesday, with stocks likely to extend the lackluster performance seen in the previous session.

Traders may continue to stick to the sidelines as they await the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, traders will pay close attention to the accompanying statement and the central bank’s projections for clues about the outlook for rates.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 99.0 percent chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged this week, but the outlook for the November meeting is somewhat more mixed.

The FedWatch Tool is indicating a 69.0 percent chance rates will remain unchanged in November but a 30.7 percent chance of another quarter point rate hike.

“How the Fed delivers the pause is crucial for November and December rate expectations, but whether it’s presented with a dovish or hawkish tilt is what matters most for financial markets,” said Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist for LPL Financial. “The Fed, and Fed Chair Powell particularly, will emphasize that they remain data dependent.”

She added, “Financial markets are even more keenly data dependent, and the wrapping of the pause, with a dovish or hawkish angle, is key for the market’s direction.”

Following the volatility seen to close out the previous week, stocks turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Monday. The major averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line.

The major averages eventually ended the session slightly higher. While the S&P 500 edged up 3.21 points or 0.1 percent to 4,453.53, the Dow inched up 6.06 points or less than a tenth of a percent to 34,624.30 and the Nasdaq crept up 1.90 points or less than a tenth of a percent to 13,710.24.

The choppy trading on Wall Street came as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

On the U.S. economic front, the National Association of Home Builders released a report showing homebuilder confidence in the U.S. has unexpectedly deteriorated in the month of September.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index slumped to 45 in September after tumbling to 50 in August. Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged.

The housing market index dropped below the key breakeven measure of 50 for the first time in five months, as persistently high mortgage rates above 7 percent continue to erode builder confidence.

Reflecting the lackluster close by the broader markets, most of the major sectors ended the day showing only modest moves.

Airline stocks showed a significant move to the downside, however, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index falling by 1.8 percent to its lowest closing level in well over four months.

Considerable weakness was also visible among biotechnology stocks, as reflected by the 1.4 percent drop by the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index.

Commercial real estate stocks also moved lower on the day, while oil stocks saw some strength amid a continued increase by the price of crude oil.

Commodity, Currency Markets

Crude oil futures are jumping $1.20 to $92.68 a barrel after advancing $0.71 to $91.48 barrel on Monday. Meanwhile, after rising $7.20 to $1,953.40 an ounce in the previous session, gold futures are inching up $3.20 to $1,956.60 an ounce.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 147.75 yen compared to the 147.61 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Monday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.0703 compared to yesterday’s $1.0692.

Asia

Asian stocks extended losses in Tuesday’s trading, as traders braced for a slew of central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan as well as the People’s Bank of China will review interest rates over the course of the week.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index edged down less than a tenth of a percent to finish trading at 3,124.96. The day’s trading ranged between 3,131.13 and 3,113.53. The Shenzhen Component Index lost 74.31 points or 0.7 percent to close at 10,125.73.

The Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 Index shed 290.50 points or 0.9 percent to end trading at 33,242.59. The day’s trading range was between 33,337.23 and 33,128.86.

Mitsubishi Motors Corp., Nippon Yusen, Mazda Motor Corp. and Yokohama Rubber Co. all gained more than 5 percent. Nissan Motor Co. followed closely with gains of 4.9 percent.

Tokyo Electron was the biggest laggard, tumbling 5.2 percent. Dainippon Screen Mfg. and Advantest Corp. both declined more than 4 percent. Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding as well as Recruit Holdings slid around 3.5 percent.

The Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange gained 66.62 points or 0.4 percent from the previous close to finish trading at 17,997.17. The day’s trading range was between a high of 18,004.74 and a low of 17,832.30.

The Korean Stock Exchange’s Kospi Index declined 15.51 points or 0.6 percent to close trading at 2,559.21. The day’s trading range was between 2,555.46 and 2,583.25.

Australia’s S&P/ASX200 Index closed trading at 7,196.60, shedding 33.80 points or 0.5 percent. The index finished 4.90 percent below its 52-week high. The day’s trading range was between 7,187.5 and 7,230.4.

Sentiment remained muted after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia released on Monday suggested the central bank had mulled a 25-basis point rate hike before finally settling for a pause.

Silver Lake Resources rebounded more than 5 percent after Monday’s tumble that exceeded 8 percent. Ramelius Resources followed with a gain of 4.6 percent. Coal mining business Coronado Global Resources, capital goods business Johns Lyng Group and gold miner Capricorn Metals all added more than 3 percent in the day’s trading.

Semiconductor business Weebit Nano plunged 8.9 percent. Core Lithium dropped more than 5 percent. Chalice Mining, Sayona Mining and Block, all slipped more than 4 percent.

The NZX 50 Index of the New Zealand Stock Exchange shed 52.48 points or 0.5 percent to close at 11,344.52. Trading ranged between 11,329 and 11,397.

Synlait Milk rebounded 4.3 percent after Monday’s plunge. KMD Brands followed with a gain of 3.8 percent whereas Mercury NZ posted a gain of more than 2 percent. Skellerup Holdings and Ryman Healthcare both gained more than 1 percent in the day’s trading.

Investore Property, Skycity Entertainment Group and Argosy Property all declined more than 3 percent. Kiwi Property Group and Fletcher Building followed with losses of more than 2 percent.

Europe

European stocks are turning in a mixed performance on Tuesday as investors largely refrain from making significant moves ahead of monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

The Swiss National Bank, the Norges Bank and the Riskbank are also scheduled to announce their monetary policies during the course of this week.

U.K. inflation data is due as well. Headline annual inflation in the U.K. is seen rising to 7 percent in August, from 6.8 percent in the previous month. Core inflation is however seen edging down to 6.8 percent, from 6.9 percent a month earlier.

Given the inflationary situation, the Bank of England is widely expected to raise rates by another 25 basis points in the review to be announced on Thursday.

While the German DAX Index is down by 0.3 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index is marginally higher and the French CAC 40 Index is up by 0.1 percent.

In the UK market, TUI is rising more than 6 percent. Hargreaves Lansdown, Phoenix Holdings, Legal & General, Smurfit Kappa Group, ITV, Fresnillo, Land Securities, M&G and British Land Company are gaining 1.5 to 2.5 percent.

Kingfisher is down more than 6 percent after downgrading its annual profit forecast. Burberry Group is declining 1.6 percent, while Royal Mail, Halma, AstraZeneca and Melrose Industries are down 1 to 1.25 percent.

In the German market, Vonovia is rising nearly 4 percent. Volkswagen is rallying 2.85 percent and HeidelbergCement is up 2 percent. Deutsche Boerse, E.ON and Continental are also notably higher.

Deutsche Post is declining more than 4 percent. MTU Aero Engines, Sartorius, Adidas, Porsche, Symrise and Siemens are down 1 to 2.5 percent.

In Paris, Renault is surging 2.6 percent and Edenred is gaining about 2.1 percent. BNP Paribas, Stellantis, TotalEnergies, WorldLine, Capgemini, Teleperformance and AXA are up 1 to 1.7 percent.

Legrand is down 1 percent. Societe Generale, which plunged sharply on Monday, is extending its losses, and is down by about 1 percent.

On the economic front, final data from Eurostat showed Eurozone inflation slowed slightly in August, coming in at 5.2 percent, down from 5.3 percent in July. Initially, the rate was seen unchanged at 5.3 percent.

However, core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was confirmed at 5.3 percent. The core rate eased from 5.5 percent in July.

Data released by the European Central Bank showed the euro area current account surplus declined to 21 billion euros in July from 36 euros billion in the previous month. The decline was largely due to the fall in the visible trade surplus. In the same period last year, the account posted a 22 billion euro deficit.

Switzerland’s foreign trade surplus increased in August as exports rose faster than imports, data from the Federal Customs Administration showed on Tuesday.

The trade surplus rose to CHF 3.21 billion in August from CHF 2.55 billion in the previous month. In real terms, exports rebounded 5.9 percent monthly in August versus a 4.9 percent decline in July. Similarly, imports logged a 1.5 percent gain in August, in contrast to a 1.8 percent gain in July.

In nominal terms, exports and imports grew by 3.8 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.

U.S. Economic Reports

The Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing a sharp pullback in U.S. housing starts in the month of August, although the report also showed a spike in U.S. building permits.

The report said housing starts plunged by 11.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.283 million in August after jumping by 2.0 percent to a revised rate of 1.447 million in July.

Economists had expected housing starts to decrease to an annual rate of 1.440 million from the 1.452 million originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said building permits surged by 6.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.543 million in August after inching up by 0.1 percent to a revised rate of 1.443 million in July.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, were expected to rise to an annual rate of 1.445 million from the 1.442 million originally reported for the previous month.

At 1 pm ET, the Treasury Department is scheduled to announce the results of this month’s auction of $13 billion worth of twenty-year bonds.

Stocks In Focus

Shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) are seeing significant pre-market strength after Barclays initiated coverage of the information technology company’s stock with an Overweight rating.

Cruise operators Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival (CCL) may also move to the upside after Truist upgraded its rating on both companies’ stocks. Truist upgraded Royal Caribbean to Buy from Hold and upgraded Carnival to Hold from Sell.

Meanwhile, shares of Starbucks (SBUX) may see initial weakness after TD Cowen downgraded its rating on the coffee giant to Market Perform from Outperform.

Fitness center franchisor and operator Planet Fitness (PLNT) may also move to the downside after JPMorgan downgraded its rating on the company’s stock to Neutral from Overweight following a recent CEO shakeup.




Choppy Trading Likely To Persist On Wall Street

2023-09-19 12:49:22

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