Canadians’ financial outlook hit all-time low in March, poll finds

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A unique sentiment survey that tracks how Canadian households feel about their financial prospects recorded its lowest score ever in March.

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There was “no good news” to be found last month, observed the authors of the Maru Household Outlook Index (MHOI), released April 11.

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The MHOI dropped to 83 from 85 in February and was well off its July 2021 high when it registered 107.

The base number for the index is 100. A result above 100 indicates optimism and below, pessimism. Maru compiles its household index each month by asking a panel of about 1,500 people a series of questions about the economy’s prospects over the next 60 days.

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“This is an incredible low point in all of the tracking in that last two years,” said John Wright, executive vice-president of Maru Public Opinion, the creator of the index. “Right now people have their heads down and they just don’t see anybody helping them.”

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Elevated levels of inflation, higher interest rates and persistently expensive grocery prices mean Canadians “don’t see a silver lining,” Wright said. Canadians are asking: “Who’s here for me? Where’s my help and it’s not forthcoming,” he said.

Month to month, there were a few notable changes in the survey which asks questions about jobs, personal finances, investing and the economy.

A growing number of respondents (14 per cent) in March said they would “likely” lose their job over the next two months, up from 11 per cent in February.

Confidence in financial markets, on a steady “downhill” decline since November 2022, continued to slide, as 27 per cent said they thought now was a good time to invest, down from 31 per cent in February.

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Taking a longer view, the deterioration in Canadians’ outlooks in various categories over the duration of the survey was stark.

For example, those who said they would struggle to make ends meet over the next two months rose to 37 per cent in March from just over a quarter (27 per cent) in April 2021. General stress levels around home economics also jumped. Just over half (51 per cent) said they were worried about their personal finances compared with 41 per cent two years ago.

Fewer households were saving for retirement: 47 per cent said they were setting aside money for when they stop working in March, down from 56 per cent at the start of the survey.

Confidence in investing waned as fewer Canadians (27 per cent) said they would invest in financial markets compared with 34 per cent two years ago. Maru also felt it was worth highlighting that investing sentiment was off a “whopping” 12 percentage points from November 2022 when Canadians were looking at the markets in a more favourable light.

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Things weren’t much better on the economic front. Thirty-six per cent of respondents said they believed the national economy would improve over the next two months. Back in April 2021, half of Canadians said they were optimistic about the economy’s prospects.

Also, 66 per cent told the Maru survey in March that they thought the economy was headed in the wrong direction. Two years ago, half agreed with that sentiment.

“I think we’re used to looking at individual components (in the survey). What we are missing is that two-thirds of the population are seeing a black cloud out there,” Wright said.

“Canadians are exasperated,” he said. “They are adrift in an ocean of inflation and there’s no dinghy, no lifeline at the moment.”

• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com | Twitter: gsuhanic