Tiff Macklem’s dashboard: Charting economy’s exit from pandemic puzzle

Governor Tiff Macklem has said that the path of interest rates will be determined by an array of indicators. We’ve done our best to reverse engineer what Macklem’s dashboard looks like by turning clues about the data the central bank cares about into charts, and then updating them when new numbers arrive.

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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has one objective: managing inflation, which the central bank defines as keeping the Consumer Price Index (CPI) advancing at an annual rate of about two per cent.

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The pandemic has made hitting that target more difficult than usual. The CPI is running well in excess of three per cent. In isolation, that implies that Macklem has left interest rates too low for too long.

But context is important. The Bank of Canada is betting the current burst of inflation is being exaggerated by a short-term imbalance of supply and demand; once suppliers expand to meet the desire of liberated consumers to spend, the wild price increases of recent months should subside. In fact, Macklem worries that deflationary forces continue to linger under the surface. Labour markets still are weak, suggesting demand could be lacklustre once the euphoria of release from COVID-19 lockdowns wears off.

It’s a puzzle, and it won’t be solved by watching a few headline numbers such as the CPI and the unemployment rate. So, the Financial Post has assembled an array of indicators in an attempt to recreate the dashboard that Macklem might be using to help him decide the trajectory of interest rates. When most of the gauges have pushed past their pre-pandemic levels, Macklem and deputies at the Bank of Canada probably will be ready to start raising interest rates. As a quick scan of the dials will show, that won’t be happening anytime soon.

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